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Türkiye's current account deficit narrows in May, tops forecasts

A view of the Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye (CBRT) Tower at the Istanbul Finance Center (IFC) in Istanbul, Türkiye, May 7, 2026. (AA Photo)
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A view of the Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye (CBRT) Tower at the Istanbul Finance Center (IFC) in Istanbul, Türkiye, May 7, 2026. (AA Photo)
July 13, 2026 10:12 AM GMT+03:00

Türkiye's current account deficit narrowed to $1.5 billion in May from $5.7 billion a month earlier, while the rolling 12-month deficit stood at $37.3 billion, official data showed Monday.

Although the figures pointed to some easing in external imbalances, the deficit still came in above expectations of $1.3 billion. The improvement appeared to be largely driven by calendar effects, as national holidays and Eid al-Adha weighed on economic activity during the month.

FDI slows as outward investment rises

In the breakdown of the balance of payments data, the current account excluding gold and energy posted a surplus of $3.6 billion. The foreign trade deficit stood at $4.3 billion, while net inflows from the services balance came in at $5.2 billion during the month.

On the financing side, net direct investment outflows totaled $455 million in May. Foreign direct investment into Türkiye increased by $296 million, while Turkish residents' direct investments abroad rose by $751 million. On an annualized basis, FDI inflows into Türkiye fell to $12.3 billion, while outward FDI edged up to $10.6 billion.

In real estate, Turkish residents made $143 million in property purchases abroad, while foreign residents recorded net real estate acquisitions worth $184 million in Türkiye.

Chart shows Türkiye's monthly current account balance (bars) and rolling 12-month current account balance (line) from January 2025 to May 2026. (Chart via CBRT)
Chart shows Türkiye's monthly current account balance (bars) and rolling 12-month current account balance (line) from January 2025 to May 2026. (Chart via CBRT)

Oil risks cloud outlook

Market analysts said the May figures offered some relief but fell short of signaling a lasting improvement in Türkiye's external position.

Local brokerage Pusula Yatirim warned that renewed energy-related risks could widen the current account deficit again, adding that any deviation from the government's Medium-Term Program (MTP) could prompt downward revisions to market expectations.

The warning comes as renewed tensions between the U.S. and Iran have pushed oil prices higher after Tehran announced the Strait of Hormuz was closed again, with the international benchmark Brent crude hovering near $80 per barrel.

The Turkish government has set a current account deficit target of $22.3 billion in its MTP, equivalent to 1.3% of gross domestic product (GDP).

In 2025, Türkiye's current account posted a $25.2 billion deficit, accounting for 1.5% of GDP.

July 13, 2026 11:28 AM GMT+03:00
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