Newsletters
In the early hours of June 13, 2025, the fragile equilibrium of the Middle East shattered. In a meticulously coordinated aerial campaign, Israeli jets launched a series of devastating strikes deep into Iranian territory, hitting nuclear facilities in Natanz and Fordow, IRGC military headquarters, and known missile production sites in the outskirts of Tehran. The operation, dubbed Operation Rising Lion, was Israel's most audacious military act since the Six-Day War and a desperate bid to prevent the Islamic Republic from reaching the nuclear threshold.
Iran has amassed 410 kilograms of uranium enriched to 60% purity- dangerously close to the 90% level required for weapons-grade fissile material. By most intelligence estimates, this stockpile could fuel multiple nuclear warheads with only weeks of further enrichment. Israeli leadership, long skeptical of the international community's ability to deter Tehran, finally acted.
The Iranian response was immediate and unambiguous. Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei called the attack an act of war and vowed "devastating retaliation." Within hours, pro-Iranian militias launched missile and drone attacks against U.S. bases in Iraq and Syria, and the Houthis threatened international shipping lanes in the Red Sea. Hezbollah went on high alert in southern Lebanon. Tehran hinted it would withdraw fully from the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), formally ending all nuclear inspections.
President Donald J. Trump, reinstated for a second term in January 2025, threw America’s full weight behind Israel. In a speech delivered during a military parade on June 14, Trump declared: "Iran will never be allowed to develop nuclear weapons. Period. If they even try, we will stop them- with whatever means necessary."
The current conflagration is not a product of a single failure, but a cumulative result of inconsistent and misguided U.S. policy since 2015. Washington has oscillated between flawed engagement and ineffective pressure, allowing Iran to entrench its nuclear program and expand its influence across the Middle East.
The 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) was the centerpiece of President Obama’s Middle East strategy. Proponents hailed it as a diplomatic breakthrough; critics called it a strategic mirage. The deal placed time-bound restrictions on Iran's nuclear activities, in exchange for lifting crippling economic sanctions. Tehran received over $100 billion in sanctions relief, which was supposed to be invested in economic recovery and integration into the international community.
Instead, Iran doubled down on its revolutionary priorities. Hezbollah received more funding and weapons. Hamas ramped up its missile production. The Houthis, now equipped with advanced Iranian drones and ballistic missiles, intensified their assault on Saudi Arabia and commercial shipping in the Red Sea. Iran's IRGC expanded its operational footprint fromIraq to Yemen, and its Quds Force became the tip of the spear in proxy warfare. The JCPOA failed to address any of these activities.
In 2018, President Trump withdrew the U.S. from the JCPOA, citing its sunset clauses and failure to curb Iran's regional aggression. The "maximum pressure" campaign was designed to strangle the Iranian economy, isolate the regime diplomatically, and force it back to the negotiating table.
It inflicted real pain. Iranian oil exports plummeted from 2.5 million barrels per day to under 500,000. Inflation soared. Protests erupted. Yet the regime did not fold. Instead, it escalated. Iranian proxies launched attacks on U.S. bases in Iraq. Drones struck Saudi oil facilities in Abqaiq. Naval mines targeted tankers in the Strait of Hormuz. Iran began enriching uranium at unprecedented levels.
Worse, the maximum pressure campaign lacked multilateral support. Europe opposed the withdrawal. China and Russia stepped in to cushion Iran’s economy. The U.S. isolated itself diplomatically, even as it sought to isolate Tehran.
President Biden took office in 2021 vowing to restore the JCPOA and rebuild global consensus. He removed the Houthis from the Foreign Terrorist Organization (FTO) list. He offered Iran a path back to compliance. But the international landscape had changed. Iran no longer trusted U.S. promises, and hardliners in Tehran saw Biden’s overtures as weakness.
While Biden negotiated, Iran enriched. While Biden spoke of de-escalation, Hamas launched the most deadly attack on Israel in decades in 2023, killing over 1,200 civilians. Iran’s hand was visible in the weapons, training, and strategy. Biden’s diplomacy failed to produce results. His red lines were blurred, and Tehran walked right past them.
Iran's strategy is twofold: build nuclear capability to ensure regime survival, and use proxies to deter retaliation and expand influence.
With 410 kilograms of 60% enriched uranium and a cadre of seasoned nuclear scientists, Iran is at the precipice. Unlike North Korea, which developed a crude but viable nuclear arsenal in international isolation, Iran has used decades of negotiations as cover to refine its capabilities.
Tehran has mastered advanced centrifuge designs, constructed hardened underground facilities, and built missile systems capable of delivering a warhead to Israel or beyond. If Iran crosses the threshold, a regional nuclear arms race becomes inevitable. Saudi Arabia has already signaled it will match Iran's capabilities. Egypt and Turkey may follow. The collapse of the global non-proliferation regime would be a geostrategic earthquake.
Iran's asymmetrical warfare doctrine relies on non-state actors. Hezbollah now possesses an arsenal of over 150,000 rockets, including precision-guided munitions. The Houthis have turned Yemen into a launchpad for drone and missile attacks against shipping and Gulf infrastructure. In Iraq, Kataib Hezbollah and other militias operate with impunity.
This network gives Iran strategic depth, plausible deniability, and a capacity for attritional warfare that has proven difficult for conventional forces to counter. Iran can escalate on multiple fronts while denying direct responsibility.
President Trump’s second term began with a promise: Iran will never possess a nuclear weapon. The June 13 Israeli strikes were reportedly coordinated with U.S. intelligence. Trump’s statement the following day signaled a new era: diplomacy remains possible, but military action is back on the table.
In contrast to previous administrations, Trump has re-established hard red lines:
Trump is also leveraging the Abraham Accords. The normalization of ties between Israel and Gulf Arab states has laid the groundwork for a de facto regional alliance. The U.S. is pushing for a new strategic framework that includes missile defense cooperation, intelligence sharing, and joint training exercises.
Rather than relying on NATO-style models, this "Middle East Security Compact" is pragmatic: focused on countering Iran and ensuring energy security. European allies, previously divided over JCPOA diplomacy, are now more aligned with U.S. concerns, particularly in the wake of Iran’s support for Russia’s war in Ukraine.
The U.S. must articulate a new strategic doctrine that avoids the failures of both the Obama and Biden years and the limitations of Trump’s first term. This doctrine should rest on six pillars:
Sixteen years of incoherent U.S. policy enabled Iran’s nuclear advances and proxy dominance. Now, the window to prevent a nuclear-armed Iran is closing fast. Israel has taken the first decisive step. The U.S. must now follow with resolve, strategy, and leadership.
This is not just about preventing one regime from obtaining the bomb. It is about preserving global norms, supporting allies, and preventing a regional war with global consequences.
The lessons of the past are clear. The time for half-measures is over. America must lead.
1 min read
