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After months of relentless loud threats, Israel's attacks on Friday morning were a comprehensive military and intelligence failure for Iran. From the very first hours of the attack, Israel was able to assassinate Iran's main military leadership, led by Mohammad Hossein Bagheri, the head of the Iranian Armed Forces and the country's most senior military official. He was killed in the strikes, along with the commander-in-chief of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, Hossein Salami.
The Israeli airstrikes also targeted two senior Iranian nuclear scientists, Fereydoon Abbasi-Davani and Mohammad Mehdi Tehranchi and Amir Ali Hajizadeh who was the head of the Revolutionary Guard's Aerospace Force.
Not content with this, Israel also deployed Mossad military forces in the heart of Iran, which played a major role in attacking Iranian military targets from within the country. This Israeli ability to attack Iran from the air and from within is shocking, not only because of Israel's considerable military might but also because of Iran's apparent fragility. This raises the question: Is Iran on the way of becoming a failed state, a state providing basic services but with no functioning army in world standards.
There is no doubt that Mossad has demonstrated a remarkable capacity for deception, as well as its capabilities in penetrating its most powerful adversaries, starting with Hezbollah, against which it was able to carry out daring operations, most notably the pager bombing, which led to a large number of the party's field commanders being removed from military service.
As for Friday's attacks, Israeli spies secretly smuggled missiles and concealed explosive drones deep inside Iran in a series of covert operations leading up to Friday's deadly attack, before deceiving military leaders into attending a meeting.
Intelligence agents from Mossad, Israel's top intelligence agency, began infiltrating the heart of Iran several months ago to carry out a surprise attack targeting Iranian nuclear and military facilities, as well as a group of senior military commanders. According to Israeli security sources, the intelligence agency had planted explosive drones inside Iran in advance, in preparation for the major strikes.
The main reason for the Iranian military's failure to confront these attacks relates to two main factors:
The first is the failure of the Iranian intelligence system to expose Israeli spy networks deep within Iran. Despite Ahmadinejad's statement in 2021 that the highest-ranking Iranian counter-espionage official was an Israeli spy, and despite Israel's demonstration of its significant capabilities to target Iran on more than one occasion, Iran has been unable to expose the Israeli spy networks.
The second is the technological and military discrepancy between the two sides.
The Israeli bombing demonstrated the extent of Iran's military failure, and that Iranian capabilities, despite recent developments, are still unable to reach the same military level as Israel.
This Iranian military failure raises broader questions about the effectiveness of the Iranian military. An army that loses most of its military leaders in the first hours of a military confrontation is clearly incompetent.
Iranian officials have previously been competing with each other in threatening Iran. The most prominent of these was Salami, commander of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps, who said last February that Israeli leaders would face an "unimaginable" response if they committed "any mistake against Iran." However, these statements seemed hollow.
Especially since Iran boasts of its military capabilities, constantly makes threats, and talks about missiles hidden underground. Yet, it has become increasingly powerless even to protect its military leaders.
Iran has been exaggerating its military capabilities, and facts have proven that Iran's military strength lies in its victories through its proxies in some Middle Eastern countries due to the weakness of its opponents or the weakness of the authorities in those countries.
The exaggerated aura surrounding Iran's military capabilities has proven, as of this writing, to be false.
Despite its focus on military manufacturing, Iran's military capabilities have been proven to be eroded to the core by corruption and intelligence infiltration. However, Iran was the only country in the region that was able to resist Israeli/American dictates.
Everyone around the world is awaiting Iran's response to the Israeli attacks. As the article is being written, Iran has launched a missile attack on Israel. While the attack caused some damage and casualties, it did not match the scale of the Israeli strikes.
The Israeli attacks on Iran will not escalate into a major regional war because Iran, at least for now, lacks the military capacity to wage a long-term war. This is particularly evident in the killing of senior Iranian military commanders and losing most of its air defense capabilities.
Iran is currently experiencing one of its most difficult moments in modern history. After losing its most important military proxy, Hezbollah, Iran also witnessed the death of former Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi in mysterious circumstances, and is now subject to widespread attacks and appears unable to respond in a 'meaningful' manner.
After previous lackluster responses, which do not match its military losses and the strikes it has been subjected to, Iran may be on its way to becoming a failed state, unable to protect its airspace or its people.
This is especially true given Netanyahu's statement that a military operation against Iran will take as long as necessary, meaning that Israel may continue attacking Iran for weeks. Iran's military failure in the face of Israeli bombardment opens the door to a replication of the Lebanon model, where Israel can attack any point there at any time.
In other words, Iran faces not only the risk of suffering significant military losses, but also the risk of losing its ability to prevent Israel from attacking it at any time, which would turn it into a failed state.
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