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This article was originally written for Türkiye Today’s weekly newsletter, Saturday's Wrap-up, in its November 8 issue. Please make sure you are subscribed to the newsletter by clicking here.
One of the narratives that Türkiye rightfully avoided after Assad’s fall was that Syria is now a vassal state tied to Türkiye instead of being a sovereign state that fights for its own freedom. It is still not clear to what extent Türkiye and other allied nations were involved in Hayat Tahrir al-Sham’s advance into Damascus. However, Trump’s statements depict Türkiye and Erdogan as the silent force that masterfully and patiently changed the tide in Syria with a deadly strike against Assad.
Syria becoming Türkiye’s vassal state would be too costly. Türkiye is not Iran and would not drive its citizens into poverty by spending extreme amounts of money on vassal states or entities for ideological or strategic reasons at the expense of its citizens. Considering Türkiye’s own economic crisis, maintaining a vassal state would be out of touch with reality.
Any enormous help to Syria would have political reverberations inside Türkiye’s borders. Don’t forget that the government is not at its strongest due to public discontent with the economy.
Trump’s belief in Türkiye’s power in Syria is half a lie. When he overly praises another country’s strong leader, he often points to Washington’s decades-long weak decision-making, while China and others advance at full speed.
Trump's statement has some nostalgia for the good old days of America. He sees Erdogan as one of the strong leaders who is advancing his country with strong decision-making and delivering results, in his mind, such as in Syria. He, being a poor student of history and Middle East politics, believes that it was a secret Turkish operation that toppled Assad.
In the Turkish Republic’s history, Türkiye never had Syria as a friendly neighbor. Both Assad rulers were painful, as Syrians often pursued their own policies against Türkiye. Knowing the history, for Türkiye, it will not be enough just to have friendly relations; Ankara needs to make sure there will not be any kind of threat coming from Syria down the road. Therefore, it is important for Türkiye and Syria to work together. Understandably, Syrians would be immensely grateful to Türkiye and consider it a close ally, but they will never act as a vassal state. The comment that Syria is set to become a vassal state for Washington because of the U.S. administration’s ties to Sharaa’s team is equally unfounded.
Sharaa is set to visit the White House on Nov. 10 to meet Trump. The visit gives Sharaa major international validation: meeting the U.S. president in Washington upgrades his status significantly.
The U.N. Security Council recently lifted sanctions on him and his associates just before this trip. It signals that the U.S. and Western partners are prepared to engage with Syria more often under his leadership—which helps his claim to both internal and external legitimacy. Domestically, this raises his profile and potentially strengthens his grip (or claim) on what comes next in Syria.
So, the West has given many green lights to Sharaa’s leadership in Syria.
3 min read
