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A divided government now seems increasingly likely following the Nov. 3 midterm elections. With all 435 House seats and 35 Senate seats, roughly one-third of the chamber, up for grabs, the stakes for President DonaldTrump’s final two years in office could not be higher.
While the president currently enjoys a Republican majority in both houses, that legislative "blank check" is under threat. The upcoming elections are crucial for Trump, who risks losing his party’s grip in Congress as he enters the final two years of his presidency. Currently, he enjoys a Republican majority in both houses, which means he can find support for his legislative agenda in Congress, as well as high-level nominations that need to be approved by the Senate, such as Supreme Court justices. Losing either chamber would significantly complicate his plans, and currently, the polls suggest he can lose both.
Republicans will have a harder time keeping the House of Representatives. Nationwide polling for party preference among likely voters gives the best indication for House elections. Currently, the Democratic Party is enjoying an average of 5.6% lead in the national polls. The Democratic Party has 47.9% support, as Republicans trail with 42.3%. The Democrats quickly surpassed the Republicans in polls after Trump announced his widespread Liberation Day tariffs on April 2 last year. They have kept and consistently widened their lead since then.
Statistically, this gives the Democrats roughly a 56% chance of winning the majority. Republicans will have to go on the defensive with these numbers, especially given the razor-thin margin they are defending. In the 2024 elections, Republicans only won a two-seat majority with 220. If Democrats can flip a total of just three seats, they can end a six-year Republican control of the House.
The path to a majority in the Senate is harder for the Democrats. Currently, the Republicans enjoy a comfortable majority of 53 senators against 45 Democratic senators. Two independent senators caucus with the Democrats, bringing their total to 47. Democrats need to flip four seats to win the majority. A 50-50 tie will not help Democrats this time, since in the event of a tie, Vice-President Vance casts the tie-breaker vote. However, it should be noted that narrow majorities have proven difficult for the Republicans, as moderate senators from purple or blue states can break the party lines in critical moments. An iconic example of this occurred in 2017 when the late Sen. John McCain ended Trump’s effort to repeal Obamacare with a thumbs-down vote, a goal the Republicans have not fully accomplished ever since.
The possibility of a Democratic majority in the Senate remains an uphill battle, but it would not come as a major surprise. A Race to the White House model puts their chances at nearly 40%. At the moment, Democrats hold a few advantages. First, the party is riding a comfortable lead nationwide. Second, President Trump’s approval rating stands at just 41%, while disapproval exceeds 55%. A president’s popularity can either buoy or drag down their party—and these numbers are currently unfavorable for Republicans. Additionally, Republicans must defend 22 seats compared with 13 for Democrats, tilting the battleground toward the Republicans.
However, there is good news for the Republicans as well. Out of the 22 seats they are defending, 21 are in states that voted for Trump in 2024, with the exception of Maine. Democrats, meanwhile, will have to defend two states—Georgia and Michigan—won by Trump. The best scenario for the Democrats would play out if they successfully defend their own turf and start flipping the following states. First, they need to take Maine. Another possibility is North Carolina, where the incumbent Republican Sen. Thom Tillis is retiring, and Democrats have a strong record. An open senate seat is generally an easier flip than one with an incumbent in American politics. Still, the Democrats would need two more seats. Polls suggest their best chances are Alaska, Ohio, and finally Iowa, where the incumbent is not seeking re-election as well.
If the Republicans cannot change the current trend in the coming months, they will likely end up losing the House and keeping the Senate with a narrow majority. A galvanized Democratic party will then shape American politics for the following two years.
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