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Will Türkiye carry out an unexpected military operation against SDF? I received the question during a live broadcast on an international channel this week, and it made me realize that this has been such an outdated question in the last few years. A simple answer to this question is no; a complex answer is maybe.
Türkiye’s Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan’s harsh remarks toward SDF this week during a presser with his Syrian counterpart, Assad al-Shaibani, raised the possibility in some people’s minds. Politicians in Türkiye were baffled by Fidan’s remarks. Pro-Kurdish People’s Democratic and Equality Party (DEM Party) Spokeswoman Aysegul Dogan advised Fidan “to update his rhetoric” toward Kurds, reminding him that there is an ongoing peace process in Türkiye.
No high-level statements came out of the ruling Justice and Development Party (AK Party) to back Fidan’s rhetoric yet. Fidan has been singled out as a hawkish political figure, while Türkiye’s once most-hawkish politician, Nationalist and Movement Party (MHP) leader Devlet Bahceli, is singing peace songs and exchanging letters with PKK ringleader Abdullah Ocalan.
However, it is safe to say that Fidan’s remarks reflect a very common frustration among Turks on the peace process: Will a peace process with an aging leader of a terrorist group and a few weak-armed factions inside the PKK lead to an appeasement policy for the YPG in Syria? Especially in a scenario where they may pose a bigger threat to Türkiye in the long term than the PKK ever did?
SDF's presence in Syria is one of the reasons why there is no extensive public support for the peace process, along with the fact that it is a top-down process where elites from both sides are running it with no public demand or support. If elites agree upon sensitive terms, I expect a very broad effort to convince the public.
The public frustration for the SDF is not without any reason. Years of public statements against U.S. support and years of negative media coverage were aimed at drawing public support for operations against SDF-YPG targets inside Syria.
Now, backtracking is difficult. A profound frustration from the Turkish public due to an armed Kurdish group in Syria will persist as long as they are present. I recently read an article on Al-Monitor claiming that the number of heavily armed SDF fighters reaches up to 100,000, armed and trained by the Pentagon. To say the least, this figure is not realistic; the reality is way less than 50,000 armed militants. It may be, however, someone's wish or a dream. In addition, Arabic clans dominate in terms of the number of militants.
Now, let's go back to a possible operation.
A direct Turkish military operation against the SDF is very unlikely. There is no public discussion or military preparation that increases the likelihood. High-profile assassination campaigns might still be on the cards to draw SDF to the table with a weaker hand, as U.S. protection of senior SDF members could be removed in time if SDF continues to keep its negative role amid stalled negotiations.
Türkiye is likely to prepare for a worst-case scenario where SDF has to be confronted by the Syrian government or Türkiye-backed groups in northern Syria. It is not clear if concessions from Damascus for the SDF will lead to a call from Ocalan for the SDF to lay down arms.
It is not known if such a call would show any tangible effect. Therefore, Fidan’s pessimistic rhetoric on where things are going in Syria should be taken as a wake-up call.
2 min read
