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A former Israeli military commander warned that the deployment of Turkish soldiers as a stabilization force in Gaza could ultimately lead to direct military conflict between Israel and Türkiye, with a decision by U.S. President Donald Trump expected by the end of the month.
Türkiye is willing to take part in the Gaza peacekeeping force. Türkiye has expressed a firm stance against Israeli genocide in Gaza since Oct. 7.
Maj. Gen. (res.) Israel Ziv wrote in an opinion piece for Israeli media outlet Channel 12 on Wednesday that President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is making "every effort" to position Turkish troops in Gaza as the stabilization force, describing the scenario as a "very serious situation" for Israel that "could end in war between Israel and Türkiye in the not-too-distant future."
"In such a situation, where Turkish soldiers are deployed in Gaza, any Israeli attack against a justified security threat in Gaza that could also harm a Turkish soldier would by definition constitute an attack on the Turkish army and a cause for war from its perspective," Ziv wrote.
Ziv said the decision on which force will deploy to Gaza is "very close" and is expected to be finalized during Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's visit to the United States at the end of the month.
"This is not just another decision; this is a most fateful decision for Israel, for many years to come," he claimed.
The retired Israeli general noted that Trump "looks less at the subtleties of the meaning and more at who is a closer friend to him," adding that the decision "will not only determine who is closer to him, but where the security future of the State of Israel is headed."
"The price of Netanyahu's absolute bet on Trump may become clear very quickly—either to Israel's benefit or as a catastrophe from its perspective," Ziv wrote.
Ziv outlined what he described as President Erdogan's "broad regional agenda," asserting the Turkish president "sees Türkiye and especially himself as the leader of the new regional order in the Middle East."
"He sees Türkiye as the regional replacement for Iran in its influence and in determining the political, security and religious order in the region," Ziv wrote.
"His plan includes building the new Syria primarily as a proxy to serve his interests and subsequently settling the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and establishing an independent Palestinian state as part of the new Turkish axis in the Middle East. The road to Ramallah passes through Gaza," he added.
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According to the former Israeli military commander, President Erdogan has proposed delaying Hamas disarmament by two years but "in fact has no intention of disarming Hamas at all."
Ziv also claimed that the Turkish president is investing significant resources in military modernization, including "building an independent military industry engaged in building hypersonic missiles and other weapons."
He referenced Türkiye's purchase of Russia's S-400 air defense system and construction of the Steel Dome air defense system, as well as a potential F-35 deal with the Trump administration "that could bring him to a techno-operational level similar to Israel."
The retired Israeli general argued Israel should prefer Egyptian control of Gaza over Turkish involvement.
"Israel prefers the option of Egypt entering, with the backing of the moderate states, which will indeed advance the possibility of the Palestinian Authority entering Gaza, to the dismay of the Netanyahu government, but this is undoubtedly the correct solution," Ziv said.
He lastly claimed that Türkiye's NATO membership "could complicate matters much more" in the event of an Israeli-Turkish military confrontation.
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