Satellite imagery and intelligence reports suggest that Russia is withdrawing parts of its military presence from Syria, following the fall of Bashar al-Assad's regime to opposition forces last week.
Analysis of photos from Maxar and Planet Labs shows increased activity at Russia's Hmeimim air base, with disassembled air defense systems, additional ground vehicles, and large transport aircraft present, all consistent with a military drawdown.
This handout satellite image released by Maxar Technologies on December 13, 2024 and taken on November 25 shows Russian S-400 air defence missile systems at the Russian Hmeimim Air Base in Syria's western province of Latakia. - Islamist-led rebels took the Syrian capital Damascus in a lightning offensive on December 8, ousting president Bashar al-Assad and ending five decades of Baath rule in the country. Assad was propped up by Russia, where he reportedly fled, as well as Iran and Lebanon's Hezbollah militant group. (Photo by Satellite image ©2024 Maxar Technologies / AFP) / RESTRICTED TO EDITORIAL USE - MANDATORY CREDIT "AFP PHOTO / SATELLITE IMAGE ©2024 MAXAR TECHNOLOGIES" - NO MARKETING NO ADVERTISING CAMPAIGNS - DISTRIBUTED AS A SERVICE TO CLIENTSThis handout satellite image released by Maxar Technologies on December 13, 2024 shows an Antonov An-124 heavy transport aircraft preparing to load equipment at the Russian Hmeimim Air Base in Syria's western province of Latakia. - Islamist-led rebels took the Syrian capital Damascus in a lightning offensive on December 8, ousting president Bashar al-Assad and ending five decades of Baath rule in the country. Assad was propped up by Russia, where he reportedly fled, as well as Iran and Lebanon's Hezbollah militant group. (Photo by Satellite image ©2024 Maxar Technologies / AFP) / RESTRICTED TO EDITORIAL USE - MANDATORY CREDIT "AFP PHOTO / SATELLITE IMAGE ©2024 MAXAR TECHNOLOGIES" - NO MARKETING NO ADVERTISING CAMPAIGNS - DISTRIBUTED AS A SERVICE TO CLIENTSThis handout satellite image released and taken by Maxar Technologies on December 13, 2024 shows Russian S-400 air defence missile systems being assembled to depart from the Russian Hmeimim Air Base in Syria's western province of Latakia. - Islamist-led rebels took the Syrian capital Damascus in a lightning offensive on December 8, ousting president Bashar al-Assad and ending five decades of Baath rule in the country. Assad was propped up by Russia, where he reportedly fled, as well as Iran and Lebanon's Hezbollah militant group. (Photo by Satellite image ©2024 Maxar Technologies / AFP) / RESTRICTED TO EDITORIAL USE - MANDATORY CREDIT "AFP PHOTO / SATELLITE IMAGE ©2024 MAXAR TECHNOLOGIES" - NO MARKETING NO ADVERTISING CAMPAIGNS - DISTRIBUTED AS A SERVICE TO CLIENTSThis handout satellite image released by Maxar Technologies on December 13, 2024 shows an Antonov An-124 heavy transport aircraft preparing to load equipment at the Russian Hmeimim Air Base in Syria's western province of Latakia. - Islamist-led rebels took the Syrian capital Damascus in a lightning offensive on December 8, ousting president Bashar al-Assad and ending five decades of Baath rule in the country. Assad was propped up by Russia, where he reportedly fled, as well as Iran and Lebanon's Hezbollah militant group. (Photo by Satellite image ©2024 Maxar Technologies / AFP) / RESTRICTED TO EDITORIAL USE - MANDATORY CREDIT "AFP PHOTO / SATELLITE IMAGE ©2024 MAXAR TECHNOLOGIES" - NO MARKETING NO ADVERTISING CAMPAIGNS - DISTRIBUTED AS A SERVICE TO CLIENTS
Evidence of Russian withdrawal from Hmeimim
Imagery reveals logistical movements at Hmeimim, including:
- Two An-124 cargo planes, capable of carrying 150 tons of equipment, on the runway.
- Several Il-76 transport aircraft and smaller models, such as An-32s and An-72s.
- Dismantling of S-400 air defense systems and helicopters.
Drone footage from Syria Television also showed operational Russian fighter and bomber aircraft remaining on-site but suggests ongoing departures of personnel and materiel.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aIXrPHRbEWA
Drone footage from Syria Television about Russia's activity in Hmeimim.
Russian planes leaving Syria, heading to Libya
Reuters, quoting a Syrian security official in Latakia, Syria: "A Russian cargo plane left for Libya on Saturday and we expect more flights."
The plane has taken off from Russia's airbase in Latakia for Libya, a Syrian security official stationed outside the facility told the Reuters news agency.
The official stationed at the gate told Reuters that additional Russian departures from the Hmeimim airbase in Syria’s coastal Latakia province are expected in the coming days.
It was recently seen that Russian Ministry for Emergency Situations Ilyushin Il-76TD (SUM9627) and another Russian Ministry for Emergency Situations Ilyushin Il-76TD (SUM9626) landed in Al Khadim Air Base in Libya.
Al Khadim has been regularly listed as being one of the main hubs where Wagner Group and its affiliates operate in Libya. According to reports, Al Khadim remains one of the Russian outposts in Libya. It is used not only by personnel employed at the airbase but also as a transit accommodation used by civilians working at Wagner-controlled mines in the Central African Republic.
Ukrainian Intelligence confirms observations
Ukraine's military intelligence directorate (GUR) stated that Russian military units from remote areas of Syria are being consolidated at Hmeimim and Tartus, Russia’s naval base on Syria’s Mediterranean coast. GUR reported:
- Increased flights: Four to five transport aircraft flights daily between Hmeimim and Russian airfields.
- Naval movements: Russian vessels are heading to Tartus to support a potential sea-based withdrawal.
The remnants of the russian military contingent from the most remote regions of Syria gathered at the naval and air bases in Tartus and Hmeymim. Those russians who have made it to the evacuation sites tend to drink and loot while waiting for their flight. Approximately 4-5 military transport planes fly daily between Hmeymim and russian airfields.
The aggressor state's ships, Ivan Gren and Aleksandr Ostrakovsky continue to move to the Tartus base to transport weapons and military equipment from Syria - they are currently in the Norwegian Sea. They are scheduled to cross the English Channel in a few days.
The russian bulk carrier Sparta, which left Baltiysk, is heading for the Syrian port. Sparta II, which left St. Petersburg, also planned to transport military equipment from the Arab Republic.
The commander of the russian contingent, Colonel General Aleksandr Chaiko, has ordered the repair of the military equipment taken out of Syria.
Defence Intelligence of Ukraine
This handout satellite image released by Maxar Technologies on December 13, 2024 shows an overview of the Russian naval base at Tartus in western Syria on December 13. - Islamist-led rebels took the Syrian capital Damascus in a lightning offensive on December 8, ousting president Bashar al-Assad and ending five decades of Baath rule in the country. Assad was propped up by Russia, where he reportedly fled, as well as Iran and Lebanon's Hezbollah militant group. (Photo by Satellite image ©2024 Maxar Technologies / AFP) / RESTRICTED TO EDITORIAL USE - MANDATORY CREDIT "AFP PHOTO / SATELLITE IMAGE ©2024 MAXAR TECHNOLOGIES" - NO MARKETING NO ADVERTISING CAMPAIGNS - DISTRIBUTED AS A SERVICE TO CLIENTSThis handout satellite image released by Maxar Technologies on December 13, 2024 shows a Russian Navy Admiral Gorshkov-class frigate in the Mediterranean sea off the coast of Syria's western coastal city of Tartus on December 13. - Islamist-led rebels took the Syrian capital Damascus in a lightning offensive on December 8, ousting president Bashar al-Assad and ending five decades of Baath rule in the country. Assad was propped up by Russia, where he reportedly fled, as well as Iran and Lebanon's Hezbollah militant group. (Photo by Satellite image ©2024 Maxar Technologies / AFP) / RESTRICTED TO EDITORIAL USE - MANDATORY CREDIT "AFP PHOTO / SATELLITE IMAGE ©2024 MAXAR TECHNOLOGIES" - NO MARKETING NO ADVERTISING CAMPAIGNS - DISTRIBUTED AS A SERVICE TO CLIENTSThis handout satellite image released by Maxar Technologies on December 13, 2024 shows a Kamov Ka-52 attack helicopter being disassembled and prepared for transport at the Russian Hmeimim Air Base in Syria's western province of Latakia. - Islamist-led rebels took the Syrian capital Damascus in a lightning offensive on December 8, ousting president Bashar al-Assad and ending five decades of Baath rule in the country. Assad was propped up by Russia, where he reportedly fled, as well as Iran and Lebanon's Hezbollah militant group. (Photo by Satellite image ©2024 Maxar Technologies / AFP) / RESTRICTED TO EDITORIAL USE - MANDATORY CREDIT "AFP PHOTO / SATELLITE IMAGE ©2024 MAXAR TECHNOLOGIES" - NO MARKETING NO ADVERTISING CAMPAIGNS - DISTRIBUTED AS A SERVICE TO CLIENTSRussian military vehicles and artillery guns are pictured at the Russian airbase at Qamishli Airport in northeastern Syria on December 12, 2024. - Islamist-led rebels took the Syrian capital Damascus in a lightning offensive on December 8, ousting president Bashar al-Assad and ending five decades of Baath rule in the country. Assad was propped up by Russia, where he reportedly fled, as well as Iran and Lebanon's Hezbollah militant group. (Photo by Delil SOULEIMAN / AFP)
Strategic implications for Russia
Losing access to the Hmeimim and Tartus bases would represent a major shift in Russia's ability to project power in the Mediterranean and Africa. The bases have been central to Moscow's operations in both regions since Russia’s 2015 intervention in the Syrian civil war.
However, the Kremlin maintains that discussions are ongoing with Syria's new government. Russian Deputy Foreign Affairs Minister Mikhail Bogdanov said Thursday that talks with Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) have been "constructive."
Bogdanov emphasized Russia’' commitment to counterterrorism: "Our bases in Syria were established to combat terrorism, and the fight against remaining Daesh elements is not over."
Russian soldiers stand by military pickups as they prepare to evacuate a position in Qamishli in northeastern Syria, Dec. 12, 2024. (AFP Photo)
Possible motivations and future presence of Russian forces
Michael Kofman, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, suggested: "This drawdown may signal a complete Russian exit from Syria, but it is too early to confirm."
Analysts speculate that Moscow may offer incentives such as financial aid or energy supplies to maintain influence under the new government in Damascus.
December 14, 2024 12:17 PM GMT+03:00
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