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Saudi Arabia plans offensive against Houthis to retake Bab el-Mandeb

Saudi soldiers stand next to armored vehicles on display during a military parade marking the 96th Saudi National Day in Riyadh on September 22, 2026. (AFP Photo)
October 03, 2026 10:04 AM GMT+03:00

Saudi Arabia is planning an offensive against Yemen's Iran-backed Houthis to reverse their seizure of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, with Turkish drones and Pakistani military equipment already in use in Yemen, regional and Western officials told Reuters.

The operation, expected in the coming weeks, would be led by Yemeni ground forces overseen by Riyadh and backed by Saudi airstrikes, according to six people with knowledge of the preparations.

More than 100,000 Yemeni troops could be mobilized, depending on its scale.

Bab el-Mandeb, the Red Sea's southern gateway, has become a key alternative to the effectively closed Strait of Hormuz. Riyadh has concluded it cannot enter new peace talks while the Houthis control the strait, Western diplomats and a Gulf official said.

The Saudi Falcons aerobatic team performs during a military parade marking the 96th Saudi National Day in Riyadh on September 22, 2026. (AFP Photo)
The Saudi Falcons aerobatic team performs during a military parade marking the 96th Saudi National Day in Riyadh on September 22, 2026. (AFP Photo)

Two options for Saudi offensive on Bab el-Mandeb

The Saudis are considering either a narrow attack around Bab el-Mandeb or a broader offensive with synchronized attacks across the governorates of al-Bayda, Marib, Taiz and al-Jawf, Gulf and Yemeni officials said.

Estimates of the launch date range from within a week to after the U.S. midterm elections in early November.

The Houthis seized the port of Mokha and Perim Island in the strait last month.

"Ideally, it would be a fairly limited operation to retake coastal areas and get back to normal maritime traffic," said Michael Ratney, a former U.S. ambassador to Saudi Arabia.

"Many anti-Houthi forces are still not organised or prepared for the kind of sustained offensive required to push back a disciplined Houthi military force," said Yemen analyst Mohammed Albasha, who spoke to Reuters.

"Success greatly depends on the quality of the performance of the local forces," said Ali Shihabi, a Saudi analyst close to government thinking.

The Houthis launched intense attacks across Taiz this week, while government forces reported more than 400 air, drone and artillery strikes on Houthi positions in 24 hours.

Container ships are seen anchored near the Strait of Bab al-Mandeb off Yemen's coast in the Gulf of Aden on August 6, 2026. (AFP Photo)
Container ships are seen anchored near the Strait of Bab al-Mandeb off Yemen's coast in the Gulf of Aden on August 6, 2026. (AFP Photo)

Turkish drones, Pakistani advisers in Yemen

Türkiye and Pakistan, which signed the Mecca Joint Defense Agreement (MJDA) with Saudi Arabia in August, have provided military equipment the kingdom is using in Yemen, Pakistani and regional officials told Reuters.

Turkish drones bought by Riyadh before the current war have been deployed over Yemen, the officials added.

Pakistan sent four cargo planes carrying air defense systems, light artillery, drones and anti-drone systems to Aden last month, and Pakistani military advisers are on the ground, officials said.

Islamabad has deployed 30,000 to 40,000 troops to Saudi Arabia but has not decided to send troops into Yemen in a fighting role, a Pakistani official told Reuters.

The U.S. is providing intelligence and targeting information, according to a Western diplomat, though U.S. President Donald Trump has rebuffed Saudi requests for direct airstrikes.

Saudi Arabia is urging Washington to carry out airstrikes on the Houthis ahead of a planned Saudi offensive in Yemen, according to Axios. Trump has been leaning against it, but U.S. officials said he could change his mind.

France is sending defensive systems and troops to protect the Saudi port of Yanbu.

Italian Defense Minister Guido Crosetto said Friday that contributions to the EU's Aspides naval mission protecting Red Sea shipping remain insufficient. Six warships are currently deployed, while EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas has said the mission needs more than 10.

Multirole high-altitude long-endurance (HALE) unmanned combat aerial vehicle (UCAV) Bayraktar Akinci performs a demonstration flight in Kocaeli, Türkiye, Aug. 21, 2026. (AA Photo)
Multirole high-altitude long-endurance (HALE) unmanned combat aerial vehicle (UCAV) Bayraktar Akinci performs a demonstration flight in Kocaeli, Türkiye, Aug. 21, 2026. (AA Photo)

Mecca pact committee to meet 'soon'

Pakistani Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar said Friday that the Mecca pact's Strategic Political Defense Committee, made up of the three countries' foreign ministers, defense ministers and military chiefs, will meet "very soon" in Riyadh, adding that any decision would be taken by all three members.

"At least more than six countries are keen to join the Mecca, which is defensive in nature," Dar said.

Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman recently voiced that the alliance with Türkiye and Pakistan was established "to strengthen regional stability, shield it from the repercussions of tensions and conflicts, and coordinate efforts."

He said the kingdom "will not hesitate to respond firmly to any threat or attack aimed at undermining our security."

Türkiye, Saudi Arabia and Pakistan signed the defense agreement on Aug. 7 during a trilateral summit in Mecca, pledging to strengthen collective security, deepen defense cooperation and promote regional and international peace and stability.

The agreement states that an attack against one of the three countries will be considered an attack against all.

Pakistan and Türkiye have so far not carried out strikes against the Houthis.

October 03, 2026 10:04 AM GMT+03:00
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