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China is rapidly advancing construction of a full-scale runway on Antelope Reef in the disputed South China Sea, with analysts estimating it could be completed by mid-2027, according to a Reuters report based on recent satellite imagery.
Satellite images taken Sept. 25 by commercial provider Vantor and reviewed by Reuters show grading work, piles of gravel and concrete, and compaction cranes operating at the site in the Paracel Islands.
The images also show a fully loaded gravel barge approaching a newly constructed wharf.
Military attaches and security analysts said the project could become one of China's most important offshore bases in the region.
Ben Lewis, founder of open-source data platform PLATracker, said construction could progress quickly based on China's previous work at Fiery Cross Reef in the disputed Spratly Islands.
“If Fiery Cross is the guide, I'd expect the runway paved in the first half of 2027 and a first landing by mid-2027, possibly earlier,” Lewis said.
Fiery Cross received a 3-kilometer runway in 2015.
“They've had 10 years to get faster at this,” Lewis said.
He added that he had not yet observed signs of excavation for ammunition or fuel storage facilities that a base of this scale would require.
Vantor imagery analysts and open-source intelligence tracker Damien Symon, who first highlighted dredging at Antelope Reef in early January, also identified the machinery as compaction cranes used to prepare reclaimed or loose ground before paving.
A completed base at Antelope Reef would represent China's most significant military expansion in the South China Sea in a decade, according to the Reuters report.
Its location in the northern South China Sea could extend the deployment range of Chinese naval vessels and military aircraft while helping protect approaches to Hainan Island, where China keeps nuclear-armed ballistic missile submarines.
The South China Sea has become an increasingly militarized area of competition between Beijing and the U.S. and its allies over Taiwan.
Beijing has not acknowledged that it is constructing a new military base at Antelope Reef. Chinese state media have said the site would support civilian functions including weather forecasting, maritime activities and scientific research.
Reuters reported in late August that new installations had appeared on Yagong Island, a smaller islet near Antelope Reef.
Analysts have not yet determined the likely purpose of the three-pronged construction there.
The entire Paracel Islands are also claimed by Vietnam and Taiwan.
China expelled forces of then-South Vietnam from bases in the Paracels during a brief battle in 1974 and has occupied the islands since, despite objections from Hanoi.
Vietnam's Foreign Ministry and Taiwan's defense and foreign ministries did not immediately respond to Reuters' questions.
The developments at Antelope Reef come as China this week confirmed the establishment of a new joint military support facility in neighboring Laos.
The facility could further deepen Beijing's presence in Southeast Asia.
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