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NATO's top military commander, U.S. Gen. Alexus Grynkewich, is set to present the alliance's "theory of victory" against any Russian attack at the Warsaw Security Forum on Monday, as Western officials warn of a growing Russian "hybrid" campaign against Ukraine's backers.
"We’re a defensive alliance, so we don’t have any desire here to escalate the situation, and we don’t have any need to do it," Grynkewich, NATO’s Supreme Allied Commander Europe, told TVP World.
"All we need to do is make sure no one can threaten us. And that’s our main objective," he noted.
The rare public framing of NATO’s war-fighting concept aims to deter Moscow and reassure eastern flank allies, as Europe braces for possible cuts to U.S. forces and incidents such as an explosive-laden drone found at a German airport raise alarm.
"The Supreme Allied Commander Europe’s theory of victory is simple: maintain NATO’s advantage, which is consistent with and grounded upon the alliance’s deterrence and defence plans," Grynkewich’s spokesman, Col. Martin O’Donnell, said last week. "But given the unsettled and complex global security environment, we need to set conditions now to deter aggression and, if necessary, win if attacked."
Grynkewich told TVP World the theory sets out "how forces would conduct operations in the event we found ourselves in conflict" and is "grounded in a strategy of what we call denial."
Adversaries should know "we have a theory and we’re ready to execute it" and "come to the conclusion that they don’t want to take us on because the alliance is ready to act," he said.
Drones and artificial intelligence are woven into the plan, mainly supplementing advantages NATO already has over Russia, such as F-35 fighter jets, he told Bloomberg.
Grynkewich said the risk of a major Russian attack on a NATO country is "relatively low" because Moscow’s forces are tied up in Ukraine.
"We’re ready to respond very quickly. But we would prevent it from happening to begin with. We win this in deterrence, and we win it by showing our strength. And we win it by showing our unity behind that strength. So, I hope the day never comes where we have to respond, because we’re going to keep them on their heels before they even think about taking a move against our alliance," he said.
NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte has urged allies to "calm, carry on and support Ukraine."
"We should not be naive about Russia, but they know we are stronger," Rutte said last month.
On Russia’s hybrid attacks, including airspace incursions, arson, sabotage and cyberattacks, Grynkewich told Bloomberg: "They’re trying to break our collective will."
He praised Denmark and Germany for increasing support to Ukraine after attacks on their soil. "Those are appropriate responses that show Russia that the objectives that they’re seeking to attain are unobtainable," he said.
On attributing attacks to Russia, he said: "I’m certainly not afraid to attribute it. If a nation wants me to, I’m happy to talk about it."
"I see Ukraine as essential to Euro-Atlantic security," Grynkewich told TVP World.
"And I think the Ukrainians are proving right now to us that they are becoming a security provider as opposed to someone who is just taking donations. But I think they are contributing to our security, and they’re going to continue to do so in the years to come," he added.
On rising political forces in Europe critical of Ukraine aid ahead of 2027 elections, he said: "I think it will become very obvious to them very quickly what the right thing to do is, and why it’s necessary for their own national security."
Asked about Trump's diesel deal with Putin, he said he was staying focused on military matters. "Windows of opportunity come and go. We have to look for those windows of opportunity and seize them when they’re available," he said of efforts to end the war.
Trump said Sunday that Russia and Ukraine had agreed to an immediate "energy ceasefire," though details were unclear.
Grynkewich also voiced concern about the contested Strait of Hormuz, "including the availability of fuel here in Europe that we would need to execute one of our defensive plans."
A "growing number" of European countries were helping keep the strait open, he said.
"Several nations are doing that, some quietly, some some more publicly. But I think it is important for all of us to recognize that we have to take that on," he said, as NATO prepares to set out its theory of victory.
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