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Some of U.S. President Donald Trump’s advisers see an opportunity for his Middle East agenda in an Israeli government led by someone other than Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, despite Trump's endorsement ahead of Tuesday's (Oct. 27) election, U.S. officials told Axios.
Dissatisfaction with Netanyahu has grown within Trump's inner circle over the past six months, particularly after the war with Iran, as final polls show Netanyahu's bloc short of a majority.
Trump has never worked with an Israeli prime minister other than Netanyahu and does not personally know the other candidates.
"He’s the devil he knows," one Trump adviser said, describing the president’s view of Netanyahu.
Trump endorsed Netanyahu on Oct. 18 after weeks of hesitation and suggested his defeat would have consequences for U.S.-Israel relations. Many of Trump's closest advisers opposed the endorsement, believing the president should stay out of the election, sources told the outlet.
One U.S. official described the endorsement as a win-win for Trump. "If Netanyahu wins, Trump could claim credit and seek concessions; if he loses, Israel’s new leaders would still seek good ties with Washington."
Some U.S. officials said a new government without Netanyahu’s far-right coalition partners could be easier to work with.
U.S. Vice President JD Vance declined to follow Trump's lead when asked about the election this week.
"I’m not attacking Bibi Netanyahu. I’m not endorsing Bibi Netanyahu. I think the president’s endorsement is ultimately what matters," Vance told reporters.
Vance, who endorsed former Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban days before his election defeat in April, said he would no longer get involved in foreign elections.
Vance is among senior officials who became disillusioned with Netanyahu during the Iran war, sources told Axios. They believe Netanyahu’s prewar assessments to the White House were mistaken.
Trump envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner have expressed frustration with Netanyahu’s reluctance to advance the president’s Gaza peace plan.
U.S. Ambassador to Türkiye Tom Barrack, who also serves as Syria envoy, has concerns about the Netanyahu government’s approach to Damascus and continued Israeli military operations in Syria.
Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s team has a better relationship with Netanyahu but believes Israel could do more to strengthen Lebanon’s government. They are also frustrated by Netanyahu’s failure to do more to curb settler attacks on Palestinians in the West Bank.
After the Israeli election and U.S. midterms, Trump faces a choice on whether to join Netanyahu in another major military operation against Iran.
Trump also wants to pursue deals between Israel and Lebanon and Syria and an Israeli-Saudi peace agreement.
Three major Israeli networks released final polls Friday projecting 50 seats for Netanyahu’s bloc in the 120-member Knesset, 17 fewer than his current coalition. They gave Gadi Eisenkot’s opposition bloc 52 to 56 seats and two Arab parties 14 to 16.
Pro-Netanyahu Channel 14 was an outlier, projecting 60 seats for his bloc earlier this week.
Neither leader appears to have a clear path to the 61 seats needed to govern. If no majority emerges, Israel could face another election with Netanyahu remaining caretaker prime minister.
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Thousands rallied against Netanyahu in Tel Aviv on Saturday at an event organized by the October Council, a group of families of victims and hostages from the Oct. 7, 2023, Hamas attack. Opposition leaders Yair Lapid, Avigdor Lieberman, Eisenkot and Yair Golan attended.
"Three days before the election, we will hold the culminating event marking three years of struggle to uncover the truth, demand accountability, and establish a state commission of inquiry," the October Council wrote on X.
"Starting next Wednesday, we will work to establish a state commission of inquiry that uncovers the truth and delivers justice for the families," Golan said. "This is our duty and our mission. We will rehabilitate, rebuild and repair. This is our message."
"Whoever has been leading us for the past four years has done such a terrible job," said Hadas Feuershtein, 68. "Israel has never been in a situation as it is now."
“I think that if we win, and we are going to win, we can change how other people in the entire world see us," said first-time voter Naama Bitterman, 18.
Police said they arrested a suspect for assaulting the security team of a public figure, identified by Israeli media as former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett.
Central Elections Committee Chairman Justice Noam Sohlberg rejected a Likud request to bar TV channels from broadcasting the rally as "election propaganda."
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