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US Vice President JD Vance said Wednesday that the war with Iran was the reason Republicans lost in this week’s midterm elections, a stark public assessment that sets him apart from an unpopular conflict as he weighs a possible run for the White House in 2028.
“The reason we lost is the war. The president himself said so last night,” Vance wrote in a lengthy post on X. He appeared to be referring to President Donald Trump’s remarks that the war was “part of it” but remained justified.
Vance challenged those who defend the war to say so openly. If they believe losing the Senate for the next six years was a price worth paying, he wrote, they should make that case. “Agree or disagree, that’s at least honest,” he said, adding that any serious discussion of the party’s path forward “must start there.”
Vance said turnout was not the main problem for Republicans. Their own voters showed up, he argued, but many of them did not vote for the party’s candidates. “The main problem is that many people who voted for Trump/Vance in 2024 voted for Democrats in 2026,” he wrote.
He pointed to Florida, where he said the electorate was 9 points more Republican than Democratic, only a couple of points worse than in 2024. He said data analysts on the Republican side had tracked turnout closely and found it was “merely OK” in some states and “downright amazing” in others, but not catastrophic anywhere.
Vance said one data expert he trusts warned him before the vote that Trump and Vance voters from 2024 were angry and might support Democrats anyway. “Our voters are turning out, but they may not vote for us,” Vance recalled being told.
Vance said another pollster, whom he did not name, told him on Tuesday that Republicans would lose the generic congressional ballot by 13 points. Vance wrote that he had felt negative going into the election but was still shocked by that number.
According to Vance, the pollster asked voters who had abandoned Republicans what would bring them back. He said the top four answers, which made up nearly all responses, were ending the war, focusing on cost of living and inflation, putting America first, and changing the US relationship with Israel.
Vance also said another pollster told him the party’s economic messaging was not sharp enough in the closing stretch of the campaign. He noted that many people had spent Monday criticizing Rachel Campos Duffy for calling for a diplomatic resolution to the conflict, but said her political advice “was sound.”
The Democratic wave in Tuesday’s elections has raised questions about Vance’s standing as the early frontrunner for the Republican presidential nomination in 2028. He has not formally announced a run.
Vance, a former US senator from Ohio who took office as vice president in January 2025, has long been a vocal critic of American military interventions abroad. He had reportedly been skeptical in private about the war on Iran that Trump and Israel launched in late February.
Looking ahead, Vance predicted what he called “a lot of gaslighting” from establishment Republicans in the coming months, including calls for amnesty for immigrants in the country illegally as a fix for the party’s problems. He said he was open to changing enforcement, such as focusing more on businesses that hire illegal labor, but argued that anyone pushing amnesty “is lying to you.”
He closed on a hopeful note, urging angry voters to channel their frustration into electing Republicans “who share your worldview.”
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