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The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) has raised its growth forecast for Türkiye, projecting the economy to grow by 3.6% in 2025 and 3.4% in 2026, both up from 3.2%, followed by a stronger rebound to 4% in 2027.
The revised forecast was published Tuesday in the OECD’s latest Global Economic Outlook report, titled "Resilient Growth but with Increasing Fragilities," which also evaluates the impact of trade barriers and monetary conditions across major economies.
The OECD said easing inflation may allow for gradual policy normalization in Türkiye, but stressed that tight monetary conditions should remain in place until inflation firmly aligns with targets.
It also underlined the need for fiscal discipline and structural reforms to support sustainable growth, while calling for a stable and predictable regulatory environment to bolster investor confidence and attract foreign capital.
Türkiye’s headline inflation is forecast to decline from 34.5% in 2025 to 20.8% in 2026 and 11.7% by 2027. The OECD expects this disinflation trend to create room for monetary policy easing, following a sustained tightening cycle led by the Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye (CBRT).
The CBRT began cutting its policy rate in the third quarter of 2025, making monetary policy more supportive. From the current level of 38.5%, the policy rate is expected to fall to 25% by the end of 2026 and 17% by the end of 2027.
Despite this easing path, the real interest rate is projected to remain positive, keeping monetary conditions relatively tight to help anchor inflation expectations.
Türkiye’s budget deficit is forecast to narrow from an expected 3.1% of GDP in 2025 to 2.8% by 2027, supported by efforts to broaden the tax base and combat informal economic activity. The current account deficit, meanwhile, is seen holding steady at 3.3% of GDP in 2026 and 3.4% in 2027, amid expectations of modest export resilience despite global trade tensions.
Unemployment in Türkiye is projected to stay at 8.4% through 2026 before declining slightly to 8.1% in 2027.
The OECD maintained its 2026 global growth forecast at 2.9%, projecting a mild acceleration to 3.1% in 2027. The updated outlook reflects stronger-than-expected resilience across major economies despite mounting challenges, including geopolitical tensions, trade restrictions, and persistent policy uncertainty.
The U.S. economy is now forecast to expand by 2.0% in 2025—up 0.2 percentage points from the OECD’s September estimate—before moderating to 1.7% in 2026 and slightly picking up to 1.9% in 2027.
For the eurozone, growth is expected to reach 1.3% in 2025, ease to 1.0% in 2026, and rise to 2.0% in 2027, also marking an upward revision compared with the previous outlook.
Despite the drag from higher tariffs and weaker investment in some sectors, the report emphasizes that global demand has held up better than anticipated.
Contributing factors include improving financial conditions, ongoing macroeconomic support, and real income gains in several advanced economies. In particular, strong corporate investment linked to artificial intelligence technologies—especially in the United States—has helped sustain momentum and counteract some of the economic headwinds.
The OECD noted that while the second half of 2025 may bring a slowdown due to the lagged effects of tariff increases and elevated uncertainty, global growth is expected to regain pace through 2026.
The recovery is projected to be supported by easing inflation, more favorable credit conditions, and continued strength in large emerging markets, particularly in Asia.
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