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Türkiye’s annual inflation rate eased for a fourth straight month in September to 29.7%, falling below the 30% threshold for the first time since November 2021, official data showed Monday.
The consumer price index rose 1.8% from August, below market expectations that were mostly above 2%, as softer food prices helped contain broader price pressures in the economy.
According to the figures, two of the three expenditure categories with the highest weight in the consumer basket, housing and transportation costs, rose 2.7% and 2.8% from a month earlier in September, largely driven by a 6.3% surge in energy prices.
However, food and non-alcoholic beverages, one of the main drivers of earlier price shocks this year, fell 0.2%, posting the first decline since June 2025. On an annual basis, prices rose 27.62% for food and non-alcoholic beverages, 35.10% for transportation, and 39.99% for housing, water, electricity, gas, and other fuels.
Core inflation, excluding energy, food and non-alcoholic beverages, alcoholic beverages, tobacco and gold, came in at 2.1%, up slightly from 1.8% in August, while the annual rate declined to 28.7%.
Producer inflation, meanwhile, rose 2.1% from the previous month and 27.4% annually in September, with the increase led by higher prices across most industrial sectors.
Mining and quarrying prices fell 0.8% monthly, while manufacturing prices rose 2.3%, electricity and gas production and distribution prices increased 1%, and water supply prices climbed 1.8%.
The figures came as the Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye (CBRT) prepared to announce its next policy rate decision on Oct. 22. The Monetary Policy Committee kept its policy rate at 37% at its September meeting, while signaling a more dovish stance by pointing to a continued slowdown in the underlying inflation trend and weak domestic demand.
However, policymakers also warned that elevated energy prices linked to geopolitical developments could put renewed pressure on inflation through higher costs, economic activity and inflation expectations.
Several global banks anticipated that the CBRT would resume monetary easing in October. JPMorgan projected a 100-basis-point reduction at the Oct. 22 meeting, followed by another 100-basis-point move in December, which would have brought the policy rate to 35% by year-end.
Bank of America also projected a 100-basis-point reduction in October, but saw it as the only move for the remainder of the year, leaving the policy rate at 36% at the end of 2026.
ING, meanwhile, called for two 100-basis-point reductions in the fourth quarter, which would have taken the rate to 35% by year-end. HSBC similarly projected 200 basis points of easing before the end of the year, reflecting expectations that moderating inflation would give the central bank room to resume its easing cycle.
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