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Hitting old US bases in Syria: Outdated intelligence or flat-out hostility?

People look at one of the three drones belonging to Iran reportedly crashed in the Daraa province in southern Syria, on March 18, 2026. (AA photo)
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People look at one of the three drones belonging to Iran reportedly crashed in the Daraa province in southern Syria, on March 18, 2026. (AA photo)
March 30, 2026 02:42 PM GMT+03:00

The Iran war, or Gulf War III, as some call it, has not spread its fire into Syria. It may be considered a blessing; Syria has yet to recover from a 13-year-long war that devastated its infrastructure and population.

Syrians have yet to recover from Bashar al-Assad’s rule, whose final years included massacres and torture carried out by Iran-backed groups. Staying out of the Iran war is the most viable choice for Syrians, as this is not their war.

Iran-backed Shia militias in Iraq have reportedly targeted the Syrian army on four separate occasions. All these incidents share one common aspect: the targeted locations either hosted American soldiers in the past or still host them.

The targeting of known former and current American bases in northeastern and southern Syria indicates that these attacks were carried out on the initiative of Iraqi militias. The attacks do not appear to have been coordinated with Iran.

A boy walks past an unexploded missile that landed in an open field on the outskirts of Qamishli, eastern Syria, on March 5, 2026. (AFP Photo)
A boy walks past an unexploded missile that landed in an open field on the outskirts of Qamishli, eastern Syria, on March 5, 2026. (AFP Photo)

The targeted locations

Since the beginning of the American and Israeli attacks against Iran, the latter and its proxies have retaliated against multiple targets across the Middle East. Ironically, compared to the past 15 years, Syria is the only Arab country in the Levant and the Gulf region that has remained outside the current war.

While this can be considered an achievement for Damascus, many fear that attacks by Iraqi militias might represent an Iranian attempt to drag Syria into the conflict. However, a closer look at the targets reveals a different story.

In the first week of March, Iraqi Shia militias reportedly attacked the Shaddadi base. They claimed to have targeted U.S. forces in Syria, but the base had been evacuated by the American military and handed over to the Syrian army as part of the U.S. plan of fully withdrawing from Syria.

Following that attack, the Iraqi militias claimed on March 24 to have targeted the Rmeilan base in northeastern Syria. This site had served as an American base between 2014 and February 2026 and was only recently transferred to the Syrian army.

A third attack targeted the al-Tanf garrison in southern Syria, but this base had also been handed over to the Syrian army about a month and a half ago.

Bad intelligence or plausible deniability?

Up until the fourth attack by Iraqi Shia militias, many speculated whether these incidents were the result of outdated intelligence on the part of the militias or they were deliberate attempts at targeting the Syrian army while maintaining plausible deniability.

As is well known, tensions between Iraqi Shia militias and the Syrian army remain high. These militias fought for years in Syria on behalf of the now-toppled Assad regime. Furthermore, pro-Iranian propaganda has systematically targeted the al-Sharaa government for alleged complicity with Israel.

Despite this speculation, the fourth and the most recent attack suggests otherwise. The militias targeted the Qasrak base in northeastern Syria—the last remaining American base in the country, which is expected to be evacuated soon.

In all these attacks, the militias used their own suicide drone capabilities, suggesting they were able to act without Iranian coordination or operational support.
Taken together, these factors strongly indicate that Iraqi Shia militias targeted the Syrian army based on outdated information and without any direct operational coordination with Iran.

March 30, 2026 02:42 PM GMT+03:00
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