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This article was originally written for Türkiye Today’s weekly newsletter, Saturday's Wrap-up, in its November 29 issue. Please make sure you are subscribed to the newsletter by clicking here.
In the past few days the renewed push to end the war in Ukraine has brought old and new peace-plan blueprints back into the spotlight, but for Türkiye some parts of the new peace initiative proposed by the Trump administration remain unsettling.
The bromance between Trump and Erdogan, and the political cost of publicly calling Trump's peace plan “counterproductive,” prevents Türkiye from voicing major concerns like other European nations. Another political cost would be appearing “anti-peace” as Türkiye positions itself as a deal broker not only in the Ukraine-Russia war but also in many other wars and conflicts. But, one fact must not be forgotten, Türkiye is a major part of NATO, any peace deal that would embolden Russia against NATO members will likely put Türkiye in harder quagmires in the future.
The discussed draft, the 28-point plan, now reportedly being reshaped and revised, advocates what many in Ankara view as a Moscow-leaning settlement: it would accept, conditionally or effectively, Russia’s territorial gains since 2014, including Crimea and major parts of Donbas, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia, while setting current battle-lines as permanent and relegating Ukraine to a permanently neutral, non-aligned status.
As Türkiye Today contributor Barin Kayaoglu masterfully put, Ankara is “calculating that, having failed to obtain a much bigger portion of Ukraine, unable to install a puppet regime in Kyiv, and locked out of Europe even as its energy and military infrastructure is getting attacked on a near-daily basis, Russia is now more amenable to peace.” As he notes, Türkiye understands that Moscow is slowly and consistently gaining ground against Ukraine.
Ankara carefully positions itself as a broker, emphasising that a negotiated peace must avoid further destabilization.
The current peace plan, however, might be far from punishing Moscow for its aggression, an aggression that started out of not recognizing the existence of another nation, Ukraine.
Türkiye has drawn a firm red line: any plan that effectively rewards aggression and legitimizes territorial conquest undermines not only Ukraine’s sovereignty but also long-term regional stability. Such principles should not be sacrificed to the U.S. administration's policy of quick fixes, and miracle peace deal proposals to problems that are very complex and have deeper history and roots.
Furthermore, Türkiye believes that such a deal, as its current form, may do more harm than good in the long run: by rewarding conquest, it risks institutionalizing injustice, leaving the door open to future Russian aggression, or to new conflicts elsewhere.
In public remarks, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has warned that any agreement must meet the “legitimate expectations” and security needs of all parties, and above all, must not create new instabilities.
In practical terms, Ankara seems to want a peace deal that respects Ukraine’s territorial integrity, ensures real security guarantees rather than limping neutrality, and avoids rewarding an aggressor through de facto recognition of illicit annexations. Please read Türkiye Today contributor Pinar Dost’s article on what rewarding aggression may mean.
That is why, while Türkiye continues to offer its diplomatic channels and readiness to host talks, it also remains skeptical of the dominant U.S.-Russia-backed draft.
3 min read
