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This article was originally written for Türkiye Today’s weekly newsletter, Saturday's Wrap-up, in its Dec. 27, 2025, issue. Please make sure you subscribe to the newsletter by clicking here.
The pro-peace process discussions on mainstream Turkish TV shows have quite rapidly turned into anti-SDF speeches over the past two weeks as the deadline for the March 10 agreement approaches. It would be delusional to label this change as Türkiye’s attempt to pressure the SDF through information warfare. Rather, Türkiye’s threat perception of the SDF is growing, and hopes for a peaceful resolution to Syria’s remaining biggest problem are fading.
The change in tone came as no surprise to the Turkish audience. Public support for the top-down peace initiative remained low since the beginning, and the “unchecked box” in northern Syria was one of the contributing factors.
SDF head Mazloum Abdi, who is believed to have a good command of Turkish as Barin Kayaoglu notes in this article for Türkiye Today, is betting that Türkiye will shy away from launching any sort of damaging military operation while a peace initiative is unfolding within Türkiye’s own borders with the PKK terrorist group. His bet may soon be tested if SDF keeps dragging its feet.
If PKK’s jailed ringleader Ocalan sees Abdi as a major obstacle to his “legacy” and his dream of being remembered as a Mandela-like figure on Kurdish streets, he may disavow Abdi’s cause and label him an imperialist puppet with a furious statement. If you are familiar with Ocalan's notorious approach to his former rivals in the Kurdish political scene, this would not sound far-fetched. However, there is no clear indication of such a statement from Ocalan anytime soon, and for now, this remains my own speculation. However, SDF head Abdi clearly blocks Ocalan’s “get out of jail” card should such a scenario ever arise. Abdi’s selfishness to claim an autonomous Kurdish administration in Syria’s north comes at the expense of risking the “historic gains” of Kurdish rights in Türkiye, and a fiery Ocalan statement might prevent it.
His other bet would be Türkiye’s economic fragility. He might argue that as Türkiye is in the midst of a burning economic crisis, any damaging military operation would hurt the economy due to reactions from major investors and Western capitals stating that “they are (extremely) concerned or outraged.” While Finance Minister Simsek may have had minor heart attacks in such a scenario, firstly, let’s not forget about Türkiye’s crucial positioning for the West amid Russian aggression in Ukraine, and possibly in Europe, and secondly, don’t forget about Türkiye’s newly rising defense industry, which would be economically boosted by such an operation. And, as a plus, Türkiye is notoriously known for ignoring economic costs during critical national security issues.
In terms of Türkiye’s image in the international arena, if such an operation occurs, the Turkish army is successful at running comprehensive operations without causing major civilian casualties as is the case in multiple operations in northern Syria. You can clearly see the difference between Türkiye’s handling of critical national security issues as a rational actor and Israel’s handling of Gaza as an irrational state.
Thirdly, Mazloum Abdi may have been betting on Israel’s approach to the issue. As an irrational state which hit multiple states including U.S.-ally Qatar, Abdi may think that Türkiye’s tone might have intensified the upcoming Türkiye-Israel rivalry in the region. However, it's hard for them to have a security umbrella in such a case. Türkiye does not even need to cross Syrian airspace to strike critical SDF military infrastructure that would force them to wave the white flag.
An operation would have serious repercussions, and risks for Türkiye, however, as the risk perception of SDF increases, and Israel’s rogue actions continue, Türkiye might feel the need to embrace the heat.
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