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This article was originally written for Türkiye Today’s weekly newsletter, Saturday's Wrap-up, in its August 1, 2026, issue. Please make sure you subscribe to the newsletter by clicking here.
Just a few months ago, Ozgur Ozel was the triumphant chairman of Türkiye’s main opposition party, though a legal case hung like a Sword of Damocles over his leadership. He had the backing of a massive electoral budget and a formidable parliamentary bloc, while the historic institutional weight of the Republican People’s Party (CHP) lent him credibility with an electorate thirsty for presidential election success. However, the looming legal case that would eventually unseat him kept him constantly uneasy in his office.
Today, following a court ruling that annulled his leadership and reinstated his predecessor Kemal Kilicdaroglu, Ozel etains his status as the main opposition leader. Yet, he is doing so with a fraction of his former budget, a divided group of MPs, and no headquarters. There is no doubt that his life just got remarkably harder. The sheer irony of Turkish politics is that Ozel became the leader of the main opposition almost overnight, and in an equally abrupt twist of fate, now finds himself building a start-up party from scratch.
Türkiye Today’s columnist Deniz Karakullukcu recalls the historic fate that many Turkish politicians suffered while making a move similar to Ozel's. He notes, “The electoral cost of fragmentation was visible in the 1990s. In the 1994 local elections, the mayoral vote shares of the SHP, DSP (both left-wing, CHP breakaway parties), and CHP were 16.8%, 7.9%, and 4.4% respectively, while the conservative icon Necmettin Erbakan-led Welfare Party won 18.9% nationwide. A year later, the DSP received 14.64% and the CHP 10.71% in the general election.”
The aforementioned elections were major turning points for the conservative political movement. These elections proved that a conservative party representing Türkiye’s underprivileged silent majority—who were hugely disappointed by the hijab ban and the secular elite—could actually win elections.
The rift that the New Party will inevitably create may ultimately become the salvation of the conservative movement that has governed the country since 2002.
What is on Ozel's mind right now is political survival, quickly followed by consolidation. This week, he officially launched a donation campaign for the New Party. Relying heavily on grassroots support, Ozel released a video urging citizens to contribute, declaring, "Our nation founded the New Party, and our nation will make it the ruling party." Transitioning from a party that receives billions in constitutional Treasury grants to one that depends on IBAN transfers is a brutal new reality.
This is a test of whether the political capital he amassed during the March 2024 local elections can be monetized into actual operational survival. The most important question, however, is whether he can be his own man despite being an ally of former Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu.
Currently in Ankara’s political corridors, rumors are circulating about a growing rift between Imamoglu and Ozel. While Ozel vehemently denies these claims—recently stating that the New Party is "neither Imamoglu’s, nor (Ankara Mayor Mansur) Yavas’, nor Ozel’s" but a party for everyone—the underlying dynamics tell a more nuanced story. Up until his suspension, Ozel was widely perceived as the co-pilot of Imamoglu’s political machine in a transactional alliance built on the necessity of defeating the old guard.
The current crisis has yielded an unintended outcome: it is forcing Ozel to build his own political charisma independent of Imamoglu. Stripped of the CHP’s protective shield, Ozel is out on the streets rallying MPs, organizing donation campaigns, and acting as the primary lightning rod for the opposition. He may no longer be just "Imamoglu's man in Ankara;" he is a leader fighting for his own political survival.
As I said in an earlier column, “Ozel had no ideological ties or loyalty to Imamoglu. In fact, one could argue that nobody in the CHP holds genuine ideological loyalty to Imamoglu. To put it briefly, Imamoglu has no strong ideology that can, in and of itself, create a major political movement.”
If Ozel successfully declares political independence to capitalize on the personal charisma he has built over the last two years, it may create even greater friction inside the opposition—a development that President Erdogan would find very pleasing.
Adding to Ozel's headache is the fragmentation of the opposition's star mayors. In what is undoubtedly one of the biggest rifts to occur inside the opposition ecosystem, Ankara Mayor Mansur Yavas has so far remained within the institutional CHP under Kilicdaroglu. By choosing not to jump ship to Ozel's New Party, Yavas has effectively split the opposition's most potent electoral weapon: the united front of the major municipalities. However, he might still change his mind.
While the opposition is busy fighting internal wars, the ruling alliance is tightening the legal net. An operation against the Uskudar Municipality over alleged bribery and organized crime resulted in the detention of Mayor Sinem Dedetas, who was once touted as the next mayor of Istanbul if Imamoglu were to become president. In addition, Ankara's Etimesgut Mayor Erdal Besikcioglu, a well-known actor-turned-politician, was detained on Thursday in a corruption operation targeting the municipality.
If the opposition cannot bridge these deepening divides and unite behind a coherent vision, they risk handing the ruling alliance an unopposed victory. The coming months will inevitably determine whether this fragmentation is the painful birth of a more resilient movement, or the final chapter of their political aspirations.
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